Quick Read Firefly Aerospace (FLY) posted Q4 2025 revenue of $57.7M (up 541% year-over-year) and guided to $420M-$450M in 2026 revenue with a $1.4B backlog, while completing the VICTUS DIEM responsive launch exercise in 24 hours for the U.S. Space Force. The company’s FORGE software contract worth $372M is embedded in U.S. missile-warning infrastructure, and Q4 revenue was 87% from spacecraft and defense software rather than launch services. Firefly’s stock surge is driven by recognition that its high-margin defense software business, particularly the FORGE missile-warning system, is undervalued relative to its launch operations, while SpaceX’s IPO announcement has boosted investor interest in the broader commercial space sector. Follow 24/7 Wall St. on Google This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them. ​ by u/Scared_Step4051 in wallstreetbets The post argues Firefly’s core value is its SciTec subsidiary, which runs FORGE, described as “the processing system for every US missile warning satellite in operation.” The author frames the stock as mispriced: “The most nuts part of all = the market is giving the software multiple to the hardware company, and the hardware multiple to the software company.” The post reached 182 upvotes and 78 comments by the end of the day. Three reasons bulls are citing: 24/7 Wall St. This infographic details Firefly Aerospace’s market position, including a ~$5.1B market cap and strong social sentiment, driven by its ‘Defense Software in Disguise’ narrative and significant contracts. Firefly’s FORGE contract, worth $372 million in total, is embedded in the U.S. Space Force’s missile-warning infrastructure, with what the Reddit post describes as “classified switching costs that make the position essentially permanent.” The company was onboarded to the $151 billion SHIELD IDIQ ceiling contract and is positioned for the $175 billion Golden Dome program. Q4 revenue was 87% from spacecraft and defense software, not launch, suggesting the market may be undervaluing the software business by framing Firefly as a rocket company. Where the Bear Case Has Traction Firefly Aerospace concluded a transformative 2025 with a stark financial contrast, reporting a $298 million net loss and negative free cash flow of $238 million despite record revenue growth. This fiscal strain, coupled with a disclosed material weakness in internal controls, prompted Cantor Fitzgerald to slash its price target from $65 to $35 to account for heightened execution risk in the 2026 launch manifest. While the consensus analyst target has moderated to roughly $37, the total absence of sell ratings suggests a resilient valuation floor. Retail interest remains anchored by the broader SpaceX IPO narrative and Firefly’s successful pivot into high-margin defense software, even as the implied upside from current trading levels continues to narrow. About the Author