SpaceX reportedly confidentially filed for an IPO with the SEC, targeting a potential $1.75 trillion valuation in what could become the largest listing ever. The same day, NASA’s Artemis II launched successfully from Kennedy Space Center — the first crewed mission beyond low Earth orbit since 1972 — sending four astronauts on a 10-day lunar flyby aboard the SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft. Space stocks suddenly feel electric again. The renewed momentum has investors thinking Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) could be the next moonshot play in the emerging lunar economy. Yet as it could just as easily implode on the launch pad, let’s examine the numbers. Space Excitement Ignites Broader Interest These twin events — SpaceX’s filing and Artemis II’s liftoff — signal that the new space economy has moved from concept to concrete progress. SpaceX’s IPO filing opens the door for retail investors to own a slice of reusable rockets, Starlink satellites, and deep-space ambitions. Artemis II validates government-commercial partnerships that fund everything from landers to surface operations. Together, they lift the entire sector. Intuitive Machines, which specializes in lunar landers and infrastructure, sits squarely in that flywheel. The question is whether its financial trajectory matches the hype. Intuitive Machines Charts a Path to Scale The space company delivered mixed 2025 results but laid out an aggressive 2026 plan. According to the company’s earnings release last month, full-year 2025 revenue totaled $210.1 million, down 7.9% year-over-year, while fourth quarter revenue came in at $44.8 million — missing estimates of $53.81 million. Yet gross margin expanded to 19%, and free cash flow use narrowed to $56 million, an $11.7 million improvement from the prior year. The company ended February with a combined backlog of $943 million. Management now guides for 2026 revenue of $900 million to $1 billion and positive adjusted EBITDA. That represents roughly a fourfold jump from 2025 levels. Two catalysts stand out. First, the company closed an $800 million Lanteris acquisition in Q1 and completed the KinetX deal, both expanding defense and national-security exposure. Second, NASA awarded Intuitive Machines a $180.4 million CLPS task order on March 24 for its fifth lunar payload mission — this time using the larger Nova-D lander to deliver seven payloads, including an Australian rover and Honeybee Robotics tech, to the lunar South Pole. In short, backlog conversion of 60% to 65% could drive the bulk of next year’s growth. The Risks Investors Must Weigh Intuitive Machines does not operate in isolation. Compare it side-by-side with Rocket Lab