Brian Wang The pressure to fix SLS and get to a launch for Artemis 2 will build. If there is another rollback in April or new leak or valve issue in May or long repairs. The program will get closer to reaching political exhaustion. This pressure will increase if there are clean launches of SpaceX Starship in March and April and SpaceX reaches full recovery and likely reusability of the version 3 Super Heavy Booster and Upper stage Starship. Reviewing the Artemis 1 history and what is happening so far in Artemis 2 is a history of helium and hydrogen leaks. They were one after another for Artemis 1 and have been one after another so far for Artemis 2. Current Situation (as of Feb 24, 2026). Successful 2nd Wet Dress Rehearsal (Feb 19) that fixed the earlier hydrogen leaks. There is a new issue (Feb 20–21). Interrupted helium flow to the ICPS upper stage. This repeats a similar Artemis 1 problem. Possible filter, valve, or umbilical quick-disconnect problems. March 6–11 window is officially dead. Rollback to Vehicle Assembly Building begins Feb 25 (weather permitting) for full access and repair. Earliest realistic launch is April 1–6 or April 30 but only IF the fix is straightforward and verification testing goes smoothly. There have been 8 total failed WDR or scrubbed launches. If there are one or two more or long repairs then this could finally lead to the canceling of SLS/Orion. Both Artemis 1 and so far for Artemis 2 missions they repeatedly hit the same two culprits — LH₂ leaks at the ground-to-rocket tail service mast umbilical and helium issues in the ICPS upper stage. Continuing these problems can easily cause months of delays that can lead to the final cancellation of SLS and Orion. 8 total failed WDR or scrubbed launches. 6 failed WDR or scrubbed launches for Artemis 1 and 2 for Artemis 2 so far. Screenshot How hard was the previous Artemis 1 fix of a helium problem? It was moderately difficult. It was straightforward technically, but logistically painful. The check valve was not accessible while the rocket is on the launch pad. The only way to reach and replace it is inside the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) with proper platforms and access. They rolled the entire SLS/Orion stack back from Pad 39B to the VAB (rollback began April 26, 2022) and they are doing the same for the similar problem now. In 2022, they removed the stuck valve, cleaned out all contamination, replaced the valve and any affected seals/O-rings, and re-verified the entire helium system. Artemis 1 helium fix time required: ~5–6 weeks total impact on the schedule. Rollback: late April 2022, repair and restacking inspection May, back the pad June 6, WDR, then launched in November. Artemis 1 passed its final (fourth) Wet Dress Rehearsal on June 20, 2022, but it was not fully clean or ready for immediate launch. The test ended successfully at T-29 seconds after demonstrating most objectives, but NASA had to use workarounds for a persistent liquid hydrogen (LH₂) leak at the tail service mast umbilical quick-disconnect on the Mobile Launcher. The entire stacked SLS/Orion vehicle was rolled back from Pad 39B to the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB). They had to replace worn Teflon seals and bellows in the LH₂ quick-disconnect, verify the umbilical, fix a separate gaseous nitrogen purge issue, and complete other final launch preparations. This alone pushed the earliest launch target from late July/early August to August 29, 2022 There were two scrubs on launch attempts. RS-25 Engine #3 would not chill down to the required temperature. Faulty sensor reading. Later confirmed not a real engine problem. There can and were launch scrubs after good wet dress rehearsals. The hydrogen leak problem did not stay fixed. 5 week repair would mean end of March to get out for a WDR and then April 30 launch. April 1-6 would be too tight. Another failed WDR or launch scrubs would push to May/June. Long repair of 8+ weeks would also push to May/June for launch. Trump, NASA and Isaacman have made return to the Moon a signature goal to beat China. Missing the entire 2026 calendar year for Artemis 2 would be politically toxic and hand China a PR win. Each extra month costs hundreds of millions in standing army + pad time. The FY2026+ budgets already direct funds toward commercial alternatives. Repeated failures give Isaacman and Congress all the cover needed to say we are accelerating the transition now. Three+ major cryogenic/upper-stage issues in a row on the same vehicle would trigger a full stand-down and independent review board (Columbia-style). The heat-shield, separation bolts, and Boeing quality issues would all get re-litigated. Artemis 2 would still fly (even if delayed to late 2026 or early 2027) because the hardware is built and the milestone is too valuable. Artemis 3 (lunar landing) would be de-scoped or fully re-architected. Orion/SLS replaced by human-rated Starship (or Dragon + Starship stack) for lunar-orbit crew transport, with Starship HLS as the lander. Blue Origin Blue Moon as backup. NASA has full confidence the Artemis mission is safe. Independent experts and some former NASA engineers feel that the Orion heat shield problems are still a risk. They have not fixed it but just reduced the time that the heat shield is under extreme temperatures by changing to steeper and faster angle for re-entry. Critics like former NASA heat-shield experts Charlie Camarda, Ed Pope, and others call Artemis 1 a major failure that was downplayed. The models still don’t fully predict behavior. Trajectory change is unproven on this exact hardware. Some estimate catastrophic risk as high as 1-in-5 to 1-in-50 . If the modified profile does not work, then the worst-case is catastrophic heat-shield failure during the final 5–10 minutes of re-entry — no abort option, no backup capsule, crew loss. Less-bad problem is heavy char loss that again requires major post-flight investigation, but the crew survives. IF there is loss of crew then again no question SLS and Orion get cancelled. If there is heavy charring and loss of chunks of the heat shield combined with the delays in April or later then the Artemis 3 change is possible. SLS/Orion cancelling after Artemis 3 would be pretty guaranteed. If there are leaks and problems during the mission, it will not matter after 2 hours. SLS will separate from Orion after 2 hours into Artemis 2. The heat shield is the main concern after 2 hours into Artemis 2. Brian Wang Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology. Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels. A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements. Categories