President-elect Trump's transition team has stated they intend to eliminate the $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles. The president-elect's closeness with Elon Musk, who owns EV maker Tesla, is unlikely to sway him to keep the credit. Musk said in July that taking away the subsidies would "only help Tesla." If the federal government does eliminate the tax credit, at least one state might make up for it. California Gov. Gavin Newsom has said the state could reinstate its rebate for EVs if the credit goes away. "We will intervene if the Trump Administration eliminates the federal tax credit, doubling down on our commitment to clean air and green jobs in California," Newsom said in a statement in November. Potential policy changes affecting EVs go beyond just the tax credit, Olmstead said. The administration could weaken fuel efficiency standards for vehicles, known as CAFE standards. "What's driving a significant chunk of demand for EVs are those CAFE standards," she said. Solar tax credit: Uncertain The biggest single incentive for American homeowners to get solar panels is the residential clean energy credit, which the IRA expanded and extended. It currently provides a 30% tax credit on the cost of installing solar panels (along with batteries, geothermal heat pumps and a few other clean energy products) through 2032, when it starts to phase out. It existed before the IRA as the Investment Tax Credit or ITC, which was created in the Energy Policy Act of 2005, signed by President George W. Bush. The credit could be scaled back, experts said, especially as Republicans in Congress look for ways to offset the budget impacts of the extension of broad tax cuts passed during the first Trump administration. "They'll be looking for places to solve that problem," Olmstead said. Gilbert Michaud, assistant professor of environmental policy at Loyola University Chicago, said he didn't expect the credit would be eliminated wholesale. "Though the Trump Administration may attempt to scale them back, these programs have received significant support from Congress, the private sector and even rural communities in which energy projects are being built," Michaud said. "More broadly, it'd be difficult to chop all of the IRA, and while I do think that they will try, some of these programs and incentives will remain intact." A scaling back of the solar tax credit could include an earlier phase-out or stricter requirements, said Zoe Gaston, principal analyst for US distributed solar at the energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie. "However, it is too early to predict." Changes to the solar tax credit would change the calculus for consumers, who currently bank on getting a significant portion of their investment in solar panels back when they file their taxes. It could also affect the availability of solar leases and power purchase agreements, in which a third-party company owns the solar panels on your rooftop and charges you either a lease payment or a per-kilowatt-hour charge. The tax credit, which goes to the company, makes that business model more affordable. State solar incentives: Largely safe While Congress might take a scalpel or some cutting object to the federal solar tax credit, it likely won't have any impact on state programs like net metering, in which you get paid for surplus electricity you sell back to the grid. "It's also important to remember that state and local programs for renewable energy are largely shielded from federal intervention or overriding," Michaud said. "Efforts such as state net metering programs, renewable portfolio standards and rebates and loan programs will stick around even with the change in DC, especially in bluer states." If the federal government does restrict incentives for renewable energy and energy efficiency, states might pick up some of the slack, Olmstead said. Especially larger, more Democratic states such as California and New York.