WhatsApp SpaceX subsidiary Starlink has first-mover advantage in the low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellite broadband market, but many well-funded competitors are snapping at its heels, including some from China. As of last month, Starlink had some 7 800 satellites in orbit, accounting for more than 65% of all active LEO constellations. Starlink has already sought regulatory approval to expand its constellation to 12 000, with another possible expansion to 34 000 satellites. However, with more than 20 other companies across the world having already announced plans to expand their own constellations, Starlink’s early lead in the LEO space does not necessarily mean it’s already conquered the market. Who the market leader is going to be five or 10 years from now is open to debate; the first one is not always the winner “Who the market leader is going to be five or 10 years from now is open to debate because the first one out the gate is not always the winner,” said Dawie de Wet, CEO of South African satellite specialist Q-KON. “Starlink, Kuiper and OneWeb look like they are going to be prominent players. But the Chinese constellations, like the ‘thousand sails’ cannot be ruled out, even though there isn’t much data available on them.” Other players include AST SpaceMobile and potentially even Samsung, which has filed plans for its own constellation. Elon Musk, who controls SpaceX and Starlink, is facing a challenge from fellow US billionaire, Jeff Bezos, the founder and former CEO of Amazon.com. Bezos’s first Project Kuiper satellites were launched in April, and the company plans eventually to deploy 3 200 satellites in three orbital planes: 590km, 610km and 630km above Earth. Vertical integration Kuiper plans to make extensive use of sister company Blue Origin’s rockets to launch satellites into space, though most of its launches so far have utilised United Launch Alliance’s Atlas V rockets as Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket is still in active development. Kuiper’s vertical business integration is not as well developed as Starlink, which uses SpaceX rockets for all its launches. In fact, Kuiper sometimes uses SpaceX rockets, too. Starlink’s vertical integration likely gives it a cost advantage over its rivals, while its larger constellation helps with coverage. But it’s not that simple. Kuiper satellites, although fewer in number, will orbit at higher altitudes than Starlink’s, meaning fewer will be needed to cover a wider area. One of the reasons Starlink wants its satellites, or “mobile towers in the sky”, closer to the ground is because it is betting on direct-to-mobile technology as a future revenue stream.