What's happening on the moon? The object in question is a 45-foot-tall (13.8 meters) upper stage of a Falcon 9 rocket that launched in early 2025 and has been orbiting the Earth-moon system ever since. The rocket delivered two spacecraft to the moon — the Blue Ghost lander (developed by private company Firefly Aerospace), which successfully touched down on the moon in March 2025; and the Hakuto-R lander (developed by Japanese company ispace), which lost contact with Earth and crash-landed on the moon later that June. According to Gray, various asteroid surveys observed the rocket's used upper stage more than 1,000 times over the past year as it tumbled through Earth orbit, staying roughly at the same distance as the moon. With this data, Gray used his software to predict with high certainty the likely time and place of the impending impact: approximately 2:44 a.m. EDT on Aug. 5, near a crater known as Einstein on the edge of the moon's Earth-facing side. The rocket debris is likely to land in or around the moon's Einstein crater, near the border of the Earth-facing and far side of the moon. (Image credit: Bill Gray) "The motion of space junk is mostly quite predictable; it simply moves under the influence of the gravity of the earth, moon, sun, and planets," Gray wrote. He added that radiation pressure from the sun's light could nudge things slightly, but isn't likely to drastically change the time or place of impact. Unfortunately, any impact flash from the event will likely be too faint to be seen from Earth, even with a large telescope. Any scientific value will come by studying the fresh crater left behind by the debris. Sign up for the Live Science daily newsletter now Get the world’s most fascinating discoveries delivered straight to your inbox. Contact me with news and offers from other Future brands Receive email from us on behalf of our trusted partners or sponsors By submitting your information you agree to the Terms & Conditions and Privacy Policy and are aged 16 or over. A growing trend? This isn't the first time Gray has predicted a lunar rocket crash. In 2022, he correctly predicted that a used rocket part would slam into the moon on March 4, getting the time of the crash right within a few seconds and the location correct within a few miles. (Gray initially predicted that the spent rocket was a Falcon 9 upper stage — in reality, it turned out to be a Chinese rocket booster.) Gray's new report has not been published in a peer-reviewed journal, but he did ask several astronomers to review his findings. He predicts the debris will hit the moon at roughly 5,400 mph (8,700 km/h), or about seven times the speed of sound on Earth. A map of the moon showing the predicted site of impact on Aug. 5, 2026. (Image credit: Bill Gray)