/ March 30, 2026 All eyes are on Tesla as it prepares to disclose its first-quarter 2026 vehicle delivery totals on April 2nd. The company has already set a clear benchmark for performance, having published a consensus estimate from analysts on March 26th. This forecast, compiled from projections by 23 financial institutions including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan, stands at 365,645 vehicles and will serve as the primary reference point for the market’s immediate reaction. The Energy Division Provides a Silver Lining Amidst pressure on the automotive side, Tesla’s energy business is emerging as a stabilizing force. The consensus anticipates energy storage deployments for Q1 will reach 14.4 GWh, setting a new company record and slightly exceeding the 14.2 GWh deployed in the prior quarter. The rapidly expanding Megapack segment is contributing more significantly to both revenue and margins, a shift that is gradually altering the long-term valuation thesis for the company. Contextualizing the Upcoming Numbers A superficial year-over-year comparison appears favorable, given that Q1 2025 represented Tesla’s weakest quarterly performance in years. This was due to planned production slowdowns at all four factories for the retooling of the updated “Juniper” Model Y. However, achieving the current consensus would mean delivering only approximately 29,000 more vehicles than in a quarter Tesla itself had characterized as a transitional phase. The sequential comparison is more stark. Tesla delivered 418,227 vehicles in Q4 2025. While a seasonal dip in the first quarter is typical for the auto industry, the expected magnitude of the decline remains sobering. Furthermore, Tesla faces structural headwinds, having recorded declining annual deliveries for two consecutive years—a first in its history. Deliveries fell from 1.81 million in 2023 to 1.79 million in 2024, and then to 1.64 million in 2025. Even a recovery to the consensus figure would not fully offset this downward trend.