And as we’ve covered previously, Tesla’s Robotaxi Promises Are Empty: Zero Miles Logged, No Permits, Now Suing Regulators. It’s a credibility problem for Tesla that doesn’t disappear with a product announcement. Deliveries Declining, Competition Accelerating Tesla’s vehicle deliveries declined 16% year-over-year in Q4 2025 and 9% for the full year, even as the global EV market grew significantly. Meanwhile, China-based EV manufacturer BYD (OTC:BYDDY) reported a 165% increase in European registrations in January 2026, while Chinese competitors continue undercutting Tesla on price with rapid new model releases. Tesla’s full-year 2025 net income came in at $3.794 billion, down 46.79% year-over-year, while operating income fell 38.45%; this occurred while revenue was essentially flat at $94.827 billion. The company is spending heavily on AI and autonomy while the core automotive business deteriorates. That’s a difficult story to sell at a trailing P/E ratio of around 370x. The Bull Case Still Has a Pulse To be fair, not everyone is running for the exits. Cathie Wood and ARK Investment Management continue buying the dip, anchoring their conviction on the long-term AI and robotaxi thesis. Furthermore, Tesla’s China-made EV sales jumped 91% year-over-year in February to 58,600 units, marking a fourth consecutive monthly rise. That’s a genuine bright spot, even if it follows a weak comparison period. The energy business is also quietly becoming a real contributor. Tesla’s Energy Generation and Storage segment posted $3.837 billion in Q4 2025 revenue, up 25% year-over-year, with record quarterly deployments of 14.2 GWh. And despite the recent pullback, TSLA stock is still up 79.71% over the past year from $222.15, indicating that the long-term chart still looks very different from the short-term pain. What to Watch Prediction markets are currently pricing in a 78% probability that Tesla delivers fewer than 350,000 vehicles in Q1 2026. If that turns out to be the actual figure, it would extend Tesla’s delivery decline narrative and likely pressure the stock further. The analyst consensus target sits at $421.61 for TSLA stock. However, with a “Hold” rating dominating Wall Street, analysts note that a re-rating would likely require a delivery recovery or a credible FSD milestone. Looking ahead, Q1 2026 delivery data, due at the end of March, will be the next major inflection point for TSLA. Q1 2026 delivery data will be a key data point for investors monitoring Tesla stock, which needs a turnaround sooner rather than later. More Content