4 March 2026 A recent analysis by PitchBook has suggested that the target valuation of $1.75 trillion (€1.5 trillion) for SpaceX at its potential initial public offering (IPO) is justified, but under certain conditions. According to Bloomberg the valuation, which could raise up to $50 billion for the company, hinges on whether investors are willing to adopt a three- to five-year investment horizon and tolerate the inherent volatility of Elon Musk’s companies. Analyst Franco Granda stressed that SpaceX’s impressive growth prospects and unique market position do justify the lofty valuation. Granda compared SpaceX’s potential price-to-sales ratio of more than 100 with that of Palantir Technologies Inc., at around 77, the highest in the S&P 500 index. Granda’s analysis used a sum-of-the-parts framework, taking into account growth-adjusted multiples for SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet business and its launch services. This framework supported the $1.75 trillion valuation that SpaceX is said to be targeting. However, Granda underlined that the final valuation will depend on investors’ willingness to assign a “platform premium” to SpaceX, reflecting the unique combination of Starlink subscriber growth, its dominant position in launches and emerging direct-to-cell technology. To justify the ambitious valuation, PitchBook forecasted that SpaceX’s revenue will reach $150 billion in 2040, a tenfold increase on last year’s estimated revenue of $16 billion. While this makes the valuation more acceptable for investors who believe in founder Elon Musk’s vision and expect substantial growth for Starlink and SpaceX’s rocket programmes, Granda acknowledged that investors will take a critical view of the reliance on long-term projections. If SpaceX hits its valuation target, it would surpass the market capitalisation of Meta and even Musk’s own Tesla, making it one of the largest companies in the S&P 500. SpaceX plans to use the proceeds from the IPO to fund an ambitious “insane flight rate” for its Starship rocket, set up AI data centres in space and develop a Moon base. PitchBook regarded these space exploration initiatives as call options with significant upside potential, but assigned them no revenue in its model. Granda warned prospective investors about the expected volatility in SpaceX’s share price, likening it to “Tesla on steroids”. He said price swings of 20-30% with every delay in key milestones, due to the limited availability of shares after the IPO. Upcoming milestones for SpaceX include a Starship test flight expected this month and a demonstration of cryogenic propellant transfer between two Starship vehicles in Earth orbit later this year. The latter is considered crucial for SpaceX’s Moon and Mars exploration ambitions. Granda also flagged a potential regulatory bottleneck as a key risk factor. Although the FAA extended SpaceX’s launch licence to 25 launches a year, the environmental review process for each vehicle modification remains slow, which could hinder SpaceX’s ambitious launch schedule. Business AM