First Cybercab off the production line at Giga Texas. Scaling Projections: The “Slow S-Curve” Reality Elon has been very clear and consistent for weeks of a slow S curve ramp. Mass / continuous production officially starts in April 2026. Initial ramp will be agonizingly slow because almost everything is new (new vehicle architecture with no steering wheel/pedals, new unboxed manufacturing process, new suppliers for many components, new gigacastings, new wiring harnesses, new end-of-line testing for unsupervised autonomy hardware, etc.). Production always follows an S-curve. Very flat at the beginning → sudden steep acceleration once the line is dialed in → eventual extremely high output. Screenshot Raines looked at the Jan 2026 Robotaxi crash report, and the numbers are exciting🔥 – when safety passenger got removed (Jan 2026), MPI (miles per intervention) is ~200K miles. – Now (Feb 2026), MPI is ~400K miles. – Robotaxi in Austin will fully surpass human drivers by the end of Q1 (before April). These numbers deviate from his last prediction due to several methodological improvements: – He previously underestimated Robotaxi mileage by ~2.5x because I was guessing mileage using a few data points and a fleet size chart. This is now corrected using the actual Robotaxi mileage chart reported in Tesla’s 2025 Q4 financial statement. – He realized parking lot dents and stationary crashes were adding significant noise. After removing them, the model fits the data much better. Brian Wang Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology. Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels. A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements. Categories