Human Drivers – USA Near misses: These are much more common than reported crashes. Naturalistic driving studies (e.g., NHTSA’s 100-Car Study and related analyses) indicate that drivers experience near-crashes or critical incidents far more frequently—potentially several per year or even per month in high-risk scenarios. Some estimates suggest near-misses occur at rates 10–100 times higher than actual crashes, with drivers in observational studies showing hundreds of near-events over months of monitored driving. Anecdotal and survey-based reports often put noticeable near-misses at 1–2 per month for active drivers, though this varies widely. [aka you would “disengage human drivers every 1000 miles or so and critical disengagements every 5000 miles” if you could from the passenger seat”] How many police reported versus unreported crashes? Actual accidents for humans (police-reported crashes)- The average driver is involved in a police-reported crash roughly once every 10–18 years (150k-250k miles but. Insurance data often cites a collision claim about once every 17.9 years. With ~238 million licensed drivers and ~5.9–6 million police-reported crashes annually (including property damage only, injury, and fatal), this equates to a low per-driver annual probability, but cumulatively, most drivers experience 3–4 police reported crashes over a lifetime (6-10 police reported and unreported accidents. 4-10 years between accident one in every 70-150k miles). At-fault accidents = Specific at-fault rates are harder to pinpoint nationally (as fault determination varies by state and crash reports), but studies show that in multi-vehicle crashes, roughly 50–60% involve at least one at-fault driver (often the one violating right-of-way or following too closely). Human drivers contribute to fault in the vast majority of crashes via errors like distraction or speeding. No precise national per-driver annual at-fault rate exists, but it’s a subset of the overall crash rate above. More detailed breakdowns from NHTSA economic cost studies (e.g., Blincoe et al., referenced in recent analyses) indicate higher underreporting for specific severities: ~60% of property-damage-only (PDO) crashes are unreported, while ~32% of non-fatal injury crashes go unreported. Fatal crashes are essentially 100% reported. This means the overall ratio skews toward more unreported minor crashes, but police data covers nearly all serious ones. Brian Wang Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology. Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels. A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements. Categories