Brian Wang Elon Musk updated that XAI Grok 5 has 6 trillion parameters and has more intelligence density per gigabyte. It will be released in Q1 2026. Grok 5 should have 1.4 to 1.6 times performance and 96-100% scores on a lot of phd areas. A 2-3X performance jump in AI was the GPT-3 to GPT-4 move. However, does it cross some level where it goes from good to great. Estimated Performance Metrics — Srini Maram (@srinimaram) November 8, 2025 These are conservative projections for Grok 5. Grok 4 hits ~85-90% on knowledge/reasoning benchmarks. Grok 5 could push 92-96%, nearing human expert levels (PhD levels are 90-95 on knowledge and reasoning). Grok 5 (xAI) should be top across reasoning (ARC/GPQA), coding (HumanEval/SWE), and multimodal (with Grokipedia integration). AGI-adjacent in narrow tasks like engineering/physics simulation. AGI odds might hit 10-20%. If AGI happens then redefines AI rankings. It will shift from what is the best LLM to hireable entity. xAI: Competing in the AI Race Late start (2.5 years old) but advancing fastest. XAI Strengths is top talent attraction, rapid hardware scaling with unique real-time X data. Differentiation: Focus on physical-to-digital integration versus pure digital AI. creative off-chessboard innovations. Grok Heavy (multi-agent system) is currently smartest AI. Grok 5 (6T parameters, multimodal: text/images/video/audio, superior tool use/real-time) has ~10% AGI chance—first time Elon sees potential. Grok 5 breakthroughs. It has the largest model, high intelligence density. Has mission-critical data quality. It feels sentient and enables exponential sentience growth (2x, 5x, and beyond). Grokipedia: Open-source knowledge repository (like Library of Alexandria 2.0); distill all knowledge, distribute copies (Moon/Mars) for preservation. Brian Wang Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology. Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels. A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements. Categories