To the Moon, Mars and beyond: Could China’s soaring space ambitions be hampered by earthly factors?
- by Channel NewsAsia Singapore
- Apr 28, 2024
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But the world’s second-largest economy is grappling with a host of issues including a protracted real estate slump, sluggish domestic spending and a shrinking workforce. Geopolitical tensions also weigh heavily as the West keeps up its de-risking strategies.
It remains to be seen as well whether China can translate national advances in space to sustained economic development, CSIS’ Mr Swope told CNA.
Against this backdrop, the commercial space arena could provide breathing room for government coffers while ensuring continued research and innovation, analysts say.
“One only has to look at what has been achieved in the United States … to see what impact commercial space ventures can have,” said Prof Parker.
“NASA is still a key player but it has outsourced much of the heavy lifting both literally and figuratively to private enterprise. These enterprises are less risk-averse and seem to be able to make more rapid progress,” he added, singling out SpaceX as a primary example.
Founded by billionaire Elon Musk in 2002, SpaceX has carved out an outsized presence in the US commercial space sector. It singlehandedly ensured the US remained in the lead for orbital launches last year - accounting for 98 of the 109 attempts made by Washington.
NASA's SpaceX Crew-8 astronauts Matthew Dominick, Michael Barratt, and Jeanette Epps, and Roscosmos cosmonaut Alexander Grebenkin launch to the International Space Station, aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida, U.S., March 3, 2024. (Photo: Reuters/Joe Skipper)
SpaceX is also integral to the US government’s space programme - flying crew and cargo to the ISS, launching NASA science spacecraft and also flying payloads for the Department of Defense, according to American non-profit The Planetary Society.
The lay of the land is different in China’s space sector. The industry has long been dominated by state-owned enterprises, with CASC and the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation the leading players.
While commercial participation has increasingly been allowed since 2014, the state still accounts for the lion’s share of the industry. Still, in recent times the country has been publicly beating the drum for the business of space.
China’s Central Economic Work Conference in December last year identified the commercial space industry as one of several strategic emerging industries to nurture. The government’s work report in March also singled out the sector as a priority.
According to statistics from the China Aerospace Industry Quality Association, the country's commercial aerospace market size increased from 376.4 billion yuan in 2015 to 1.02 trillion yuan in 2020.
“Could a Chinese equivalent of Elon Musk emerge?” pondered HKU’s Prof Parker.
The Zhuque-2 Y-3 carrier rocket, a methane-liquid oxygen rocket by Chinese company LandSpace, carrying satellites takes off from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center, in Gansu province, China December 9, 2023. (Photo: cnsphoto via Reuters)
GEOPOLITICAL TURBULENCE
As China’s space programme hits new heights, analysts say Beijing will have to contend with competition and concern as fellow major space powers sit up and take notice.
The US has been vocal about its uneasiness towards China. Early last year, NASA’s chief asserted that Washington and Beijing are locked in a space race. Mr Bill Nelson also warned in an interview with US news outlet Politico that China could try to dominate the most resource-rich locations on the moon.
“We better watch out that they don’t get to a place on the moon under the guise of scientific research. And it is not beyond the realm of possibility that they say, ‘Keep out, we’re here, this is our territory.’” he said.
More recently in April, Mr Nelson told lawmakers on Capitol Hill that he believes China is concealing military activity in space.
Beijing has refuted the allegations. A Global Times editorial published in January said any notion of a space race is “imagined by the Americans”, and China has no intention of participating in it.
“China's development of aerospace technology emphasises three aspects: peaceful utilisation, equal mutual benefit, and inclusive development,” the article stated.
HKU’s Prof Parker, when asked what poses an overriding threat to China’s space ambitions, indicated that deliberate containment policies from “powerful state actors” beyond the country are playing a negative role.
While he did not elaborate on their identities, Prof Parker believes such efforts will “ultimately be self-defeating”. He brought up a US law that bans NASA from cooperating with the Chinese government. Passed in 2011, the so-called Wolf Amendment has been renewed annually through new spending bills.
A notable consequence of the Wolf Amendment is the effective ban on China from the ISS. All this did in the end was to “turbocharge” China's space programme, said Prof Parker.
The International Space Station (ISS) photographed by Expedition 56 crew members from a Soyuz spacecraft after undocking on Oct 4, 2018. (File photo: NASA/Roscosmos/Handout via Reuters)
Still, as competition heats up, CSIS’ Mr Swope expects national activities in space to reflect the earthly state of play. Even so, he points out that a “big unanswered question” is how exactly nations will protect their space capabilities so they are available when national security is at stake.
Activities beyond Earth’s atmosphere are governed by the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which has been signed by all major spacefaring nations. It binds the parties to use outer space only for peaceful purposes while stating there is no claim for sovereignty in space.
Under the treaty, military bases and weapons testing are forbidden on all celestial bodies. Parties also undertake not to place weapons of mass destruction - including nuclear arms - in Earth’s orbit or on celestial bodies.
The protection of satellites is particularly on countries' radars considering how they’re “largely defenceless”, said Mr Swope. At the same time, they fulfil an array of critical functions - real-time communications, navigation and positioning, and weather prediction, to name some.
“Can (protection of space capabilities) be done using international agreed-to frameworks on norms for behaviours in space? That might work on most days, but probably not during a conflict,” he noted.
Ms Svetla from Johns Hopkins University pointed out that China is one of only four countries that have successfully demonstrated kinetic anti-satellite capabilities. India, Russia and the US make up the other nations.
At the end of the day, even as other countries make progress and space becomes more crowded or potentially even more dangerous, Ms Svetla believes China alone is the pivotal factor to whether its space ambitions flourish or stall.
“The future of today is no longer only about who gets to space or any celestial body first, but about who manages to survive and thrive in the harsh conditions of the space environment,” she told CNA.
“Long-term dedication, resources, and a close network of friends and allies may prove key to doing so sustainably and successfully.”
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